Leadership
July 10, 2025
6
Min
The Science of Strategic Thinking in Leadership: Why Some Leaders See the Chessboard - and Others Just See the Pieces
First Principles Thinking
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Then, the head of product - quiet until now - leaned forward and said, “Everyone’s been focused on what we can build. But not enough on what we shouldn’t.” A pause. Then a whiteboard sketch. Within two weeks, the team had shut down four underperforming bets, reallocated budgets, and shifted the messaging narrative. By Q2 of the next year, they were back in growth mode.
This wasn’t clairvoyance. It was strategic thinking in action.
Strategic thinking isn’t abstract. It’s a cognitive capability rooted in neuroscience, decision science, and systems theory. And it’s a capability many leaders under-develop because the short-term treadmill of execution never slows.
A study by PwC found that 61% of CEOs felt they were not spending enough time on strategic thinking, yet rated it among their top three priorities. Strategic thinking matters because it gives leaders the ability to:
It’s not about being the smartest person in the room. It’s about being the one who can see which room to be in.
Over two decades of working with senior leaders, we’ve observed that strategic thinking operates across four interlocking “gears.” Each gear sharpens the next. We call this The 4-Gear Model.
Strategic thinking starts with slowing down your frame of reference, not just your calendar. It means stretching time beyond this quarter and looking at second- and third-order consequences.
Great strategic thinkers routinely ask:
Micro-action: Block a 45-minute solo “future scan” session each fortnight. No Slack, no emails - just horizon scanning and pattern observation.
Leaders often get stuck treating symptoms, not causes. Strategic thinkers elevate the lens from the problem to the system in which the problem lives.
A talent retention issue? That’s not just HR - it’s likely signalling cultural misalignment, lack of meaning, or unarticulated growth pathways.
Reflection prompt: Where am I assuming linearity when the system is non-linear?
Micro-action: Draw a causal loop diagram for a recurring issue. Map feedback loops. Challenge your team to identify reinforcing vs balancing cycles.
This is the trickiest gear. Strategic thinkers are mentally ambidextrous - they hold conflicting truths without rushing to resolve the tension.
Think: “We must cut costs” and “We must invest in innovation.” Both are true. The work is in sequencing and framing, not false binaries.
Micro-action: In your next leadership discussion, ban “either-or” framing for 20 minutes. Ask, “What would it take for both to be true?”
Strategic thinkers are ruthless editors. They simplify complexity not by ignoring it, but by prioritising what actually matters.
In a noisy world, attention is the scarcest resource. Strategic leaders curate focus. They know that clarity is a leadership act.
Micro-action: Try the “Five Slides Challenge.” In any strategy deck, ask: if you had to deliver this in 5 slides only, what would you keep?
Rebalance your leadership rhythms
Create Strategic Thinking Labs
Reward insight, not just outcomes
Even the best-intentioned executives can derail their strategic thinking. Here are some common missteps:
How often do I create the conditions for strategic thought - versus just expecting it to appear on demand?
Which of my direct reports are already operating in strategic gear - and who might be ready for a stretch assignment to build it?
When strategic thinking becomes embedded, we’ve seen organisations:
In short: the work gets better. And the workplace does too.
Want to make this real? Do one thing:
Schedule a 60-minute “Strategic Signals” meeting with your team. No agenda. Just this question: What’s one early signal we might be missing?
Let us know how it goes - or if you'd like us to help facilitate.
It was the third consecutive quarter of underperformance. The leadership offsite had all the hallmarks of urgency: late nights, thick decks, and open-ended “what are we missing?” questions. The CEO, seasoned but visibly strained, stared at the market share slide as if willing the numbers to shift.
Then, the head of product - quiet until now - leaned forward and said, “Everyone’s been focused on what we can build. But not enough on what we shouldn’t.” A pause. Then a whiteboard sketch. Within two weeks, the team had shut down four underperforming bets, reallocated budgets, and shifted the messaging narrative. By Q2 of the next year, they were back in growth mode.
This wasn’t clairvoyance. It was strategic thinking in action.
Strategic thinking isn’t abstract. It’s a cognitive capability rooted in neuroscience, decision science, and systems theory. And it’s a capability many leaders under-develop because the short-term treadmill of execution never slows.
A study by PwC found that 61% of CEOs felt they were not spending enough time on strategic thinking, yet rated it among their top three priorities. Strategic thinking matters because it gives leaders the ability to:
It’s not about being the smartest person in the room. It’s about being the one who can see which room to be in.
Over two decades of working with senior leaders, we’ve observed that strategic thinking operates across four interlocking “gears.” Each gear sharpens the next. We call this The 4-Gear Model.
Strategic thinking starts with slowing down your frame of reference, not just your calendar. It means stretching time beyond this quarter and looking at second- and third-order consequences.
Great strategic thinkers routinely ask:
Micro-action: Block a 45-minute solo “future scan” session each fortnight. No Slack, no emails - just horizon scanning and pattern observation.
Leaders often get stuck treating symptoms, not causes. Strategic thinkers elevate the lens from the problem to the system in which the problem lives.
A talent retention issue? That’s not just HR - it’s likely signalling cultural misalignment, lack of meaning, or unarticulated growth pathways.
Reflection prompt: Where am I assuming linearity when the system is non-linear?
Micro-action: Draw a causal loop diagram for a recurring issue. Map feedback loops. Challenge your team to identify reinforcing vs balancing cycles.
This is the trickiest gear. Strategic thinkers are mentally ambidextrous - they hold conflicting truths without rushing to resolve the tension.
Think: “We must cut costs” and “We must invest in innovation.” Both are true. The work is in sequencing and framing, not false binaries.
Micro-action: In your next leadership discussion, ban “either-or” framing for 20 minutes. Ask, “What would it take for both to be true?”
Strategic thinkers are ruthless editors. They simplify complexity not by ignoring it, but by prioritising what actually matters.
In a noisy world, attention is the scarcest resource. Strategic leaders curate focus. They know that clarity is a leadership act.
Micro-action: Try the “Five Slides Challenge.” In any strategy deck, ask: if you had to deliver this in 5 slides only, what would you keep?
Rebalance your leadership rhythms
Create Strategic Thinking Labs
Reward insight, not just outcomes
Even the best-intentioned executives can derail their strategic thinking. Here are some common missteps:
How often do I create the conditions for strategic thought - versus just expecting it to appear on demand?
Which of my direct reports are already operating in strategic gear - and who might be ready for a stretch assignment to build it?
When strategic thinking becomes embedded, we’ve seen organisations:
In short: the work gets better. And the workplace does too.
Want to make this real? Do one thing:
Schedule a 60-minute “Strategic Signals” meeting with your team. No agenda. Just this question: What’s one early signal we might be missing?
Let us know how it goes - or if you'd like us to help facilitate.
It was the third consecutive quarter of underperformance. The leadership offsite had all the hallmarks of urgency: late nights, thick decks, and open-ended “what are we missing?” questions. The CEO, seasoned but visibly strained, stared at the market share slide as if willing the numbers to shift.
Then, the head of product - quiet until now - leaned forward and said, “Everyone’s been focused on what we can build. But not enough on what we shouldn’t.” A pause. Then a whiteboard sketch. Within two weeks, the team had shut down four underperforming bets, reallocated budgets, and shifted the messaging narrative. By Q2 of the next year, they were back in growth mode.
This wasn’t clairvoyance. It was strategic thinking in action.
Strategic thinking isn’t abstract. It’s a cognitive capability rooted in neuroscience, decision science, and systems theory. And it’s a capability many leaders under-develop because the short-term treadmill of execution never slows.
A study by PwC found that 61% of CEOs felt they were not spending enough time on strategic thinking, yet rated it among their top three priorities. Strategic thinking matters because it gives leaders the ability to:
It’s not about being the smartest person in the room. It’s about being the one who can see which room to be in.
Over two decades of working with senior leaders, we’ve observed that strategic thinking operates across four interlocking “gears.” Each gear sharpens the next. We call this The 4-Gear Model.
Strategic thinking starts with slowing down your frame of reference, not just your calendar. It means stretching time beyond this quarter and looking at second- and third-order consequences.
Great strategic thinkers routinely ask:
Micro-action: Block a 45-minute solo “future scan” session each fortnight. No Slack, no emails - just horizon scanning and pattern observation.
Leaders often get stuck treating symptoms, not causes. Strategic thinkers elevate the lens from the problem to the system in which the problem lives.
A talent retention issue? That’s not just HR - it’s likely signalling cultural misalignment, lack of meaning, or unarticulated growth pathways.
Reflection prompt: Where am I assuming linearity when the system is non-linear?
Micro-action: Draw a causal loop diagram for a recurring issue. Map feedback loops. Challenge your team to identify reinforcing vs balancing cycles.
This is the trickiest gear. Strategic thinkers are mentally ambidextrous - they hold conflicting truths without rushing to resolve the tension.
Think: “We must cut costs” and “We must invest in innovation.” Both are true. The work is in sequencing and framing, not false binaries.
Micro-action: In your next leadership discussion, ban “either-or” framing for 20 minutes. Ask, “What would it take for both to be true?”
Strategic thinkers are ruthless editors. They simplify complexity not by ignoring it, but by prioritising what actually matters.
In a noisy world, attention is the scarcest resource. Strategic leaders curate focus. They know that clarity is a leadership act.
Micro-action: Try the “Five Slides Challenge.” In any strategy deck, ask: if you had to deliver this in 5 slides only, what would you keep?
Rebalance your leadership rhythms
Create Strategic Thinking Labs
Reward insight, not just outcomes
Even the best-intentioned executives can derail their strategic thinking. Here are some common missteps:
How often do I create the conditions for strategic thought - versus just expecting it to appear on demand?
Which of my direct reports are already operating in strategic gear - and who might be ready for a stretch assignment to build it?
When strategic thinking becomes embedded, we’ve seen organisations:
In short: the work gets better. And the workplace does too.
Want to make this real? Do one thing:
Schedule a 60-minute “Strategic Signals” meeting with your team. No agenda. Just this question: What’s one early signal we might be missing?
Let us know how it goes - or if you'd like us to help facilitate.